Wildrose success attributed to Alberta's governing Tories

EDMONTON — The Wildrose Alliance Party's breakthrough showing in a public-opinion poll this week may say less about the fledgling party and more about Albertans' discontent with the current government and opposition parties, says one political scientist.

"For the Wildrose it's a huge boost in momentum heading to the leadership contest," said Grant MacEwan University political scientist Chaldeans Mensah.

"The key question is, will this be sustained, and I have my doubts. I think they're getting away with a lot of platitudes."

Though fresh off a byelection win in Calgary this fall, the Wildrose won't have a leader until Oct. 17 and so far hasn't no clear platform.

"Their agenda's not well defined," said Calgary-Buffalo Liberal MLA Kent Hehr, noting the party's leadership candidates bring up a range of issues in public meetings, from questioning the science of climate change to reopening the abortion issue.

"At the same time, let's face it, they do have at least some support," Hehr said.

A poll released Wednesday by Lethbridge College political scientist Faron Ellis shows the Wildrose at 18.5 per cent of decided voters and the Liberals at 17.9 per cent.

Premier Ed Stelmach's Progressive Conservatives polled 32.9 per cent of decided voters, well off the 52.7 of votes the party won in the 2008 election.

"I'm overjoyed that Albertans are asking themselves, 'Is this as good as it gets?'" Hehr said.

Calgary-Egmont Conservative MLA Jonathan Denis said his party isn't panicking.

"I'm not hearing some sort of groundswell," of discontent, he said Thursday.

Calgary-Montrose Conservative MLA Manmeet Bhullar said Albertans have questions and concerns because of the economy. But even in Calgary-where Ellis's poll suggests 27 per cent of decided voters would support the Wildrose, versus 38 per cent support for the Tories -Bhullar said he doesn't hear questions about a new party.

"The high 30s for us, I've seen that before," Bhullar said. "That's where we were leading up to the last election. The result is pretty clear. High 30s leads to 72 of 83 seats."

Both candidates for the Wildrose Alliance's leadership, Danielle Smith and Mark Dyrholm, said they were happy to see the party pick up double-digit support in the poll. In 2008, Wildrose took 6.8 per cent of the votes provincewide.

"I think we need to make sure we maintain the momentum," Smith said.

"I think the Wildrose Alliance is in a building phase right now," Dyrholm said. "It's the small-C conservatives that are now finding something to get excited about."

If Albertans are unhappy with the current government, the Liberals and NDP seem to have picked up little new support, Ellis's poll suggests.

The poll put NDP support at 9.2 per cent across the province, though the NDP and Liberals did far better among decided voters in Edmonton.

NDP Leader Brian Mason said he doesn't put much stock in polls from Ellis, a former federal Reform party member who also holds a Wildrose membership.

"The real story is that the Conservative party has dropped considerably in support," he said.

Mensah said pressure on the right opens a path for closely contested ridings in Edmonton and Calgary to be won by the Liberals. "But in the larger scheme of things, the Liberal party hasn't demonstrated itself as a government-in-waiting for the people of Alberta."

Ellis's poll is considered to be accurate within 2.8 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

taudette@thejournal.canwest.com

With files from Archie McLean